Analyzing Bonds and Dividend Strategies for Corporate Growth
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Name of the university:
Student’s ID
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Part I.
In order to complete this part you will have to choose a publicly traded company which also have issued bonds.
You can check here if your company issued any bonds:
http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/Default.jsp
http://www.hl.co.uk/shares/corporate-bonds-gilts/bond-prices/gbp-bonds
(Links to an external site.)
1. Find the Bond prospectus of the company and prepare a half-page report on the bond (nominal value, dates issued, redemption date, coupon dates, main bond covenants imposed on the firm, special protections clauses, etc). This information should include all details of interest for prospective bondholders. Please upload the prospectus along with your report.
Answer:
About company Unilever PLC:
Unilever Plc is a British multinational company that began its incorporation in 1929. It is listed as the fourth largest FMCG company worldwide. It has it headquarter in London. It is a fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) company that includes the segments of personal care products for skin, hair care, oral care, deodorants. With that nowadays, it also includes snacks, sauces, mayonnaise, margarine, ice cream, and tea-based beverage. With that for Home Care, which includes sales of home care products, such as capsules, liquid, soap bars. There are around 400 brands includes Dove, Knorr, Lipton, Lux, Sunsilk, Rexona, and magnum. The Company has its operation in more than 190countries by selling its products in countries.
The company has issued two bonds issued for senior notes of 3 and 10 years.
Bond value of 1 bond:
Nominal value: $500 million
Date issued: 14 September 2020
Redemption date: 14 September 2023
Interest rate:0.375%
First Coupon date: 14 September 2021
(Debt investors, 2021)
Bond value of 2 bonds:
Nominal value: $500 million
Date issued: 14 September 2020
Redemption date: 14 September 2030
Coupon rate: 1.375%
First coupon rate: 14 September 2030
(Debt investors, 2021)
Brand preference
The success of the company depends upon the value and the relevance of the company in the market and in between the consumers around the world with new ideas and innovation in the products. there is also uncertainty due to rapid changes in the taste, preference, and behavior of the consumer in the market. Sudden changes in the trends of the market directly affect the sale of the products of the company in the market with the positive or negative response towards the company. The company is more dependent on innovative products and technological changes with new products in the market. (Unilever plc prospectus, 2021)
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Risk factors:
Business is subject to risks and uncertainties. The company has taken certain mitigating actions action to reduce the risk of the business of uncertainties of the operating cycle, sales, and distribution, cash flow, financial position, the reputation of the company. There is a unification agreement that would include the number of conditions that would directly affect the bondholder of the company. This would consider necessary bondholder resolutions for Unilever N.V and Unilever PLC as joint bond issuers. (Unilever plc prospectus, 2021)
Description of the Notes and Guarantees
The senior notes will be issued under the head of Indenture and will be considered as unsecured obligations of UCC. It would rank equally with all other unsubordinated debts and unsecured UCC. The payment of interest, premium, and principal will be jointly guaranteed by the Companies. The payment of principal, premium, if any, and interest on the Notes will be guaranteed jointly by UNUS, Unilever N.V, and Unilever PLCs fully or conditionally. There is no sinking fund provided under the notes. (Unilever plc prospectus, 2021)
Principal, Maturity, and Interest
Principal amount to be issued is $500,000,000 with 0.375% senior notes due 2023 and $500,000,000 principal amount with 1.375% senior notes due 2030. Notes of 2023 will be mature on September 14, 2023, and Notes of 2030 will be mature on September 14, 2030. Notes with 0.375 % would be provided with semi-annually interest payments on every March 14 and September 14 date. On the date of March 14, 2021, whose name would be there in the bond registration would be entitled to get the interest payment.
Notes of 2030 would provide the interest rate of 1.375% with semiannual payment on March 14 and September 14 of the year. On the 14 dates of march and September bond names registered would be entitled to get the interest rate payments. (Unilever plc prospectus, 2021)
Redemption
Senior notes of 2023can are redemption at any time or part to part-time with fully r partial as per the requirement. The price of the redemption would include accrued interest at the redemption time with the greater of a) discounted amount of remaining payments b) principal amount. The redemption of 2030 senior notes would also be the same as of 2023 redemption terms. It is necessary to provide the notice of any redemption bond of 15 days but not more than 60days. All the senior notes would mature on maturity date only unless any defaults in the redemption payment or any major uncertainty in the company. (Unilever PLC Annual reports and accounts, 2021)
Ethical
Companies brand value is high due to its consistent, ethics with the customers and its bondholder and stake holder in the company continuous consistent with the expectations of consumers, customers, and other stakeholders, is important for the safety of the reputation of Unilever and its 400 brands. The main element of the ethical approach in the company is to reduce inequality within employees and brands associated with the company. (Unilever PLC Annual reports and accounts, 2021)
Treasury and tax
Company is exposed to various external financial risk which includes treasury and taxation process. The values of currency fluctuate daily and which impacts the business results directly. The company consolidates its financial statements in euros which is subjected to exchange rates of the income, assets, and earning of the foreign subsidiaries of the company. Due to change in taxation rates and imposition material change in cash flow would be reflected with undermining credit rating, investor confidence, and restriction in raise funds for future developments. During uncertainty, taxation makes the condition worse or increases the liquidity risk in the market.
(Unilever PLC Annual reports and accounts, 2021)
For further more information regarding directors, financial statements following report are mentioned
a) Unilever PLC’s Report on Form 6-K furnished to the SEC on September 2, 2020 (2020 First Half Year Results).
b)Unilever N.V.’s Report on Form 6-K furnished to the SEC on September 2, 2020 (2020 First Half Year Results); and
(cThe Annual Report on Form 20-F of Unilever N.V. and Unilever PLC for the year ended December 31, 2019;
2. Find the credit rating of the company, and explain what it means from the bondholder perspective.
Answer:
These two bonds of the Unilever Plc with jointly Unilever Corporation and Unilever N.V has got A1 credit rating for the bond issue for 2023 and 2030. Both S&P Global, Moddy’s, Fitch and CRISIL has rated the company and its bond with A1 rate which means that the risk in investing in these bonds is very less, and it can be considered as secured as the company his also having stable rating from top credit rating in the world.
| S&P Global | Moody’s | |
| Long term | A+ | A1 |
| Short term | A-1 | P-1 |
| Result | Stable | Stable |
Bond’s credit rating is important to know the creditworthiness of the bond issuer whether he would be able to pay back the amount and additional benefits to the bondholder on the date of maturity basis on the current and future price and circumstances of the company. Ratings are changed by the credit rating company according to the changes in the situation in the company or the market with the change in scenarios. (A1 Rating, 2021)
A+ and A1 are considered as the third-highest ratings which are assigned to debt by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services (S&P Global) and Moody’s Investors Service to these two bonds of the Unilever company. These ratings are considering as high-quality investment-grade bonds which indicates that the issuer is financially capable and has acceptable revenues and cash reserves to pay its debts and bonds redemptions in the future. (2021) The risk of default for investors side to the bondholder is low. With the low risk in the bonds, there is low return also like in these two risks is low which indicates or has less return compared to bonds with a high-interest rate and high risk is involved in the investment. (A1 Rating, 2021)
3. Find the most recent price of the bond and show how it can be used to determine its YTM (Yield to Maturity). Show all your calculations in word document (formula and values used) and upload your excel file to support your calculations. If the bond you have chosen has not been traded recently you can assume a hypothetical price and show the YTM calculation for it.
Answer:
| Calculation of Yield to Maturity of two bonds: | |
| 1. $500 million bonds at 0.375 | |
| 2. $500 million with 1.375 rates | |
| Calculation of corporate bonds of $500 million for 3 years maturity at 14/09/2023 | |
| Face value | 100 |
| Annual coupon rate | 0.38% |
| Bond price | 100 |
| Maturity years | 3 |
| YTM | 0.38% |
| Calculation of corporate bonds of $500 million for 10 years, maturity at 14/09/2030 | |
| Face value | 100 |
| Annual coupon rate | 1.38% |
| Bond price | 95.93 |
| Maturity years | 10 |
| YTM | 2% |
(Bonds Detail, 2021)
The current price of the bond maturity with 2023 is above the bond price trading at $100.3 whereas the bond maturity with 2030 for 10 years is at low value than face value =$95.93 current bond price. If we the YTM of both the maturity of the bond i.e.3 and 10 years we can conclude that with the increase in the number of the years to maturity YTM increases which means risk in the investment increases due to fluctuations and uncertainty in the market. YTM for maturity at 2023 is around 0.38% which is very low and indicates a low rate of risk associated with the bonds for the bondholder. Thus, due to low risk in the bond YTM, there is a less or low rate of return or interest rate associated with the bonds. On, other side bonds maturity with 10 years has a YTM of 2% which is more than the YTM of 3 years Maturity. This indicates that 10 years maturity bonds have more risk compared to the 3 years of maturity bonds. Due to more risk involved in the 10 years maturity, more or high-interest rate compared with the 3-year maturity is there. There is a difference of 1% interest rate between the bonds maturing in 3 years and 10 years.
(What is Yield to Maturity? How to Calculate and Interpret YTM? | Scripbox, 2021)
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Part 2.
Choose a publicly traded company, which pays dividends, go to its investor relations website, and also get the share price and trading volume information from a trading data source such as Yahoo Finance and/or Google Finance.
1. Describe the types of shares and trading of these shares in stock market. You can answer some or all of the following questions as appropriate for your stock.
What type of shares and how many shares of each type has the company issued? How widely held and traded is the stock? What proportion of its shares are widely traded (floats)? How many analysts follow the firm? How much trading volume is there on this stock?
Answer:
Company: Unilever PLC
Market: Main
ISIN: GB00B10RZP78
SEDOL: B10RZP7
Market Segment: SET1
Market capitilsation: 1000118.93
Current price: 3853.50 (GBX)
Issued share capital: £81798695
Ordinary shares 2629243772 with each 31/9 p each
Unilever Plc is listed on London stock exchange, Euronext Amsterdam, American Depository Receipts and on New York stock exchange
Turnover on books: £114318147.98
52-week range: 3721.00/4907.00
Earnings per share :2.13
P/E Ratio: 22.17
Dividend Yield: 3.87%
(Bloomberg – Are you a robot?, 2021), (Price explorer, 2021)
(Stock, 2021)
2. Describe the ownership of this stock. You can answer some or all of the following questions as appropriate for your stock.
Who holds stock in this company? How many stockholders does the company have? What percent of the stock is held by institutional investors? Does the company have listings in foreign markets? (If you can, estimate the percent of the stock held by nondomestic investors.) What percent of the stock is held by insiders in the company? What percent of the stock is held by employees overall? (Include the holdings by employee pension plans.)
Answer:
Shares issued and purchase of shares at the end of 2020 PLC were up to a maximum of £12,102,222 nominal value which represents 33% of PLC’s issued ordinary share capital. Around 5 % of shares are for general corporate purposes and an additional 5% with acquisition and capital investments. As per the announcement by PLC announced PLC on 30 November 2020, Unification, 1,460,713,122 new PLC shares were which represent 55.56% of the total number of PLC shares.
Institutional investors have a good amount of stakeholders in Unilever plc. This represents that the company has a certain level of credibility in the investment community of the stakeholders. Institutional stakeholder holds more than half of the issued stock with them thus, board members are more likely to give attendance to this institutional investor in decision-making process and benefits of the shareholders.
Major stakeholders of the company which matters and are a concern from the company are customers, consumers, suppliers, business partners, shareholders and planet & society.
(Unilever plc full year 2020 result presentation, 2021)
Shareholder of the company:
1.88% of Shares Held by All Insider
41.31% of Shares Held by Institutions
42.10% of Float Held by Institutions
934 Number of Institutions Holding Share
(Yahoo is now a part of Verizon Media, 2021)
Top mutual fund holders:
| Holder | Shares |
|---|---|
| Vanguard International Stock Index-Total Intl Stock Indx | 33,263,865 |
| Vanguard Tax Managed Fund-Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund | 17,336,424 |
| iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF | 12,803,262 |
| First Eagle Global Fund | 9,917,900 |
| iShares MSCI Eafe ETF | 8,710,820 |
| Capital Income Builder, Inc. | 7,578,290 |
| Price (T.Rowe) Overseas Stock Fund | 6,792,449 |
| Fidelity International Index Fund | 5,837,610 |
| Vanguard International Stock Index-Vanguard European Stock Index | 5,452,827 |
(Yahoo is now a part of Verizon Media, 2021)
3. Using the beta published by Yahoo Finance (or other data provider), risk-free rate equal to 3-month treasury bond yield and a 5-year return on appropriate market index, calculate the required return on the stock. (Hint: use CAPM formula).
Answer:
CAPM model:
The capital assets pricing model (CAPM) describes the relationship between expected return for assets and systematic risk associated with it in a particular stock.
Formula = Rf + (Rm- RF) * beta
Where beta = beta of the investment stock
Rf = risk-free interest rate of the country or treasury bill 3,6,9 month
Rm = market risk premium
Risk-free interest rate takes into account the time value of money and it is the rate of interest that is free from any default like treasury bills are risk or having very little risk associated with them with less return on the investment. Higher the interest rate higher the risk factor while low return with low-risk factor in the investment.
The beta of the stock is the change or effect on the stock with the change in the index of the stock like exchange in London stock exchange FTSE 100 index would impact 0.20 on the stock’s price of the Unilever PLC.
The market risk premium is the average of the index return over the period by including all the stocks in the index like FTSE 100 includes 100 company stocks change in its market premium calculations. The average of this stock over the period is considered as the market risk premium of the index.
(What market risk and risk-free rates are your UK peers using now? | Business Valuation Resources, 2021)
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There are several assumptions made during the use of the CAPM model are like markets are dominated by rational and risk-averse investors who require a maximum return on the amount of the investment made in the stock. Securities market are relevant and all the information are to available in the market Beta published by Yahoo finance (5y monthly) =0.20
Risk free interest rate = 3-month treasury bill = 1.50%
Market risk premium = 5.60%
| CAPM Calculation | |||
| risk free interest rate (rf) | 1.50% | ||
| market risk premium (rm) | 5.60% | ||
| Beta of Unilever PLC (b) | 0.2 | ||
| CAPM = RF + (RM-RF)* Beta | |||
| 0.0232 | |||
| CAPM = RF + (RM-RF)* Beta | 2.32% | ||
(FTSE overview, 2021)
4. Get the last 10 years of dividend information, and calculate the compound annualised growth rate of dividends. Do you think the dividends are likely to grow at this rate in the future? Explain why or why not. If not, what alternative growth rate you can suggest?
Answer:
| Dividend period | Dividend per ordinary share | Payment date | Annual dividend pay r |
| Q3 2020 | 37.46p | 20 November 2020 | (37.46+36.98+36.14)/3 |
| Q2 2020 | 36.98p | 9 September 2020 | =110.58/3 = 36.86 |
| Q1 2020 | 36.14p | 4 June 2020 | Annual dividend pay =36.86 p |
| Q4 2019 | 34.72p | 18 March 2020 | (34.72+35.76+36.82+35.46) |
| Q3 2019 | 35.76p | 4 December 2019 | Average dividend paid= 35.69 |
| Q2 2019 | 36.82p | 11 September 2019 | |
| Q1 2019 | 35.46p | 5 June 2019 | |
| Q4 2018 | 33.61p | 20 March 2019 | Average dividend paid= 33.93+34.35+33.41+31.55 |
| Q3 2018 | 33.93p | 5 Decemnber 2018 | =33.31 |
| Q2 2018 | 34.35p | 5 September 2018 | |
| Q1 2018 | 33.41p | 6 June 2018 | |
| Q4 2017 | 31.55p | 21 March 2018 | |
| Q3 2017 | 31.99p | 13 December 2017 | 31.99+31.83+30.21+27.68
=30.43 |
| Q2 2017 | 31.83p | 6 September 2017 | |
| Q1 2017 | 30.21p | 7 June 2017 | |
| Q4 2016 | 27.68p | 15 March 2017 | |
| Q3 2016 | 28.90p | 7 December 2016 | =28.90+26.89+25.66+23.00 |
| Q2 2016 | 26.89p | 7 September 2016 | =26.11 |
| Q1 2016 | 25.56p | 1 June 2016 | |
| Q4 2015 | 23.00p | 9 March 2016 | |
| Q3 2015 | 22.59p | 9 December 2015 | =22.59+21.10+21.80+21.77 |
| Q2 2015 | 21.10p | 9 September 2015 | =87.26/4 = 21.815 |
| Q1 2015 | 21.80p | 3 June 2015 | |
| Q4 2014 | 21.77p | 11 March 2015 | |
| Q3 2014 | 22.52p | 10 December 2014 | 22.52+22.53+23.38+22.22
=22.66 |
| Q2 2014 | 22.53p | 10 September 2014 | |
| Q1 2014 | 23.38p | 11 June 2014 | |
| Q4 2013 | 22.22p | 12 March 2014 | |
| Q3 2013 | 22.80p | 11 December 2013 | 22.80+23.12+22.91+20.39
=22.31 |
| Q2 2013 | 23.12p | 11 September 2013 | |
| Q1 2013 | 22.91p | 12 June 2013 | |
| Q4 2012 | 20.39p | 13 March 2013 | |
| Q3 2012 | 19.77p | 12 December 2012 | 19.77+18.92+19.81+18.79
=77.29/4 =19.32 |
| Q2 2012 | 18.92p | 12 September 2012 | |
| Q1 2012 | 19.81p | 13 June 2012 | |
| Q4 2011 | 18.79p | 22 March 2012 | |
| Q3 2011 | 19.24p | 14 December 2011 | 19.24+19.62+19.96
= 58.82/3 =19.61 |
| Q2 2011 | 19.62p | 14 September 2011 | |
| Q1 2011 | 19.96p | 15 June 2011 |
(Dividend calendar, 2021)
Annual growth rate:
| DIVIDEND GROWTH RATE | |||
| AVERAGE dividend | YEARS | CALCULATION | |
| 19.61 | 2011 | PRESENT AVAERAGE DIVIDEND/PAST AVERAGE DIVIDED-1 | |
| 19.32 | 2012 | -1% | |
| 22.31 | 2013 | 15% | |
| 22.66 | 2014 | 2% | |
| 21.82 | 2015 | -4% | |
| 26.11 | 2016 | 20% | |
| 30.43 | 2017 | 17% | |
| 33.31 | 2018 | 9% | |
| 35.65 | 2019 | 7% | |
| 36.86 | 2020 | 3% | |
Based on the past annual dividend growth rate of the last 10 years it can conclude that there are fluctuations in the dividend payout over years. Most dividend pay growth was positive except for two years i.e. 2012 and 2015 but then in 2016 dividend growth rate was highest in the last 10 years with a 20% growth rate. If we consider the last five years then, gradually the dividend growth rate is falling from 17 % to it came to 3% in the last year. Last year’s dividend was low might due to covid effect in worldwide and in the company revenue also.
5. Using the Gordon growth model and your outputs in questions 3 and 4 calculate the intrinsic value of the stock. Is the value obtained sensible compared to the current market price? Is the stock undervalued or overvalued?
As per the dividend growth model of the company, the company is paying dividends positively but there is a gradually fall in dividend payout ratio in recent 5 years of data included. This may be the effect of the covid pandemic in 2019- and 2020-years dividend payout ratio. (Dividend Growth Rate Definition, 2021)
Intrinsic value means the worth or true value of the company without considering book value and market price. It includes several variables like trademarks, quality of the directors, copyrights, business climate which are not directly reflected in the market price of the stock. Intrinsic value is considered as fundamental value or a value of an option that determines the true value of the company. (Speights, 2021)
The main aim of the investor is to know the value of investing to seek out stocks that are trading for less than their intrinsic value. There are several methods of assessing a stock’s intrinsic value. Different investors can form two different methods for calculating the intrinsic value of the stock for the same stock option. The general rule remains the same for the stock is to buy a stock for less than its worth, and evaluating intrinsic value help in finding the price is overvalued or undervalued. (Speights, 2021)
Formula to find Intrinsic value of stock = (stock current price – option strike price)* no of options available:
= (3853.36-3860)*100
=-700
The intrinsic value of the stock is overvalued because the price of the stock in the current market is less than the strike price of the stock. This means if we may the stock it would be bought at a higher price than the current market price which is overvalued price of the stock. The undervalued price of the stock indicates when the price in the current market is more than the strike price of the stock in the option.
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